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Dust settling in job board land

by Brett Iredale April 7, 2008



The dust seems to be settling in job board land as established players and newcomers settle into their respective positions in the market.  Aside from a little jostling for second and third there isn't much new or interesting to report.  JJJ and JobX seem to have eased up on their gorilla poking, no-one has gone broke yet this year, the top end of town is settling back into normality, there doesn't seem to be anything new or exciting and all is calm.

So what is next?  Will it be something new?  Will we see consolidation?  Will MyCareer and Careerone join forces?  Will JJJ buy JobX or other tier 3s to strengthen their bid for outright 4th?  Or is everyone battoning down the hatches to see what happens in the US?




Entry filed under: General, Industry News, Job Board Updates

3 CommentsAdd your own

1. Craig April 7, 2008 at 1:27pm

With the amount some of these new guys burnt on startup, I wonder if they can afford to be 4 or 5th.

2. Economist April 8, 2008 at 10:33am

I think everyone's watching the uncertain outlook for the economy. We're not going to get big changes in this environment.

There seems to be no end in sight to candidate shortages which are driven by population and demographic trends, skills deficits and a booming resources sector, as well as the overall unemployment rate.

That said, only the last of these is going to be affected by economic cycles, and its far from certain what the direction of the economy is going to be - there are lots of positive and negative indicators out there, both from markets and from the economy itself.

If the economy dives and unemployment rises, then that would be bad news for JobX, JJJ, new business models, aggregators and potentially some niche sites. The need to advertise on multiple sites would go away and advertisers would think much more carefully about supporting new channels.

In a down cycle, you'd also expect print to become an even lower value proposition, which means CareerOne's job volumes fall substantially, more than MyCareer's, although the online sector as a whole should benefit.

On the other hand, MyCareer is going to be affected more by falls in the banking and IT sectors, and they're also very exposed in New South Wales and Victoria, where a declining economy would potentially hit harder than it will in the resources-rich states.

Seek will also lose in the same sectors and geographies as MyCareer, but also in the SME sector if a credit crunch is upon us and interest rates keep rising.

The recruitment agency sector is also going to be in for a rough ride - many of the small start-ups will not survive, and history suggests that the big players consolidate a little and ride out the storm much better than the smaller ones. Seek is probably the most exposed to the smaller recruiters.

I'm not sure what will happen in ATS sector. Most likely the more expensive ATS systems will have a tough time and quaility, local, competitively priced ATS providers might have a good opportunity to demonstrate ROI which becomes more important to employers.

The RPO sector is also one to watch. There seems to be conflicting trends here depending on who you speak to - some say the pendulum is swinging back towards insourcing, whereas others say RPO has never been so hot. In a down cycle, you'd expect the sales pipeline for RPOs to dry up since hiring 'efficiency' pre-supposes hiring in the first place.

Pure speculation here but a severe down economy might also tempt Google or Yahoo or CareerBuilder or Monster back into the market - if there are more jobseekers around, a down-market presents an opportunity to have people familiarise themselves with your brand, which hoepfully you can capitalise on when the economy turns again.

Ideally of course, none of this will happen at all, and everyone will continue to make hay while the sun shines, though perhaps not quite at the frenetic rate we've seen over the last year or so.

3. Simone April 15, 2008 at 9:43am

I think that it is very unlikely the JOBX boys will sell to JJJ perhaps when hell freezes over they will consider it

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